Indian Commercial Vehicle Market: New Report Examines Signs of Saturation and Future Growth Trajectories

New Delhi [India], November 28: If you look at the total number of commercial vehicle (CV) units sold in the last three years, you can see the industry growth has been stagnant.

In FY 2022-23, 962,468 CVs were sold
In FY 2023-24, 968,770 CVs were sold
In FY 2024-25, 956,671 CVs were sold

And these numbers raise a serious question: has the CV or truck industry been saturated, and is there no future growth?

To counter these concerns, TruckOnWheels’ research team has some optimistic projections that the trucking industry in India still has a lot of growth opportunities to capitalise on. And this article aims to explore those growth factors.

Commercial Vehicle Market Overview

Commercial vehicles are divided into 3 main categories. Each category of vehicles plays a crucial role to meet specific demands. Before we dive further, we need to review the market performance of all three categories to understand the CV market.

Small Commercial Vehicles (SCV)

Small Commercial Vehicles (SCVs) have emerged as the most rapidly growing category, particularly with the advent of electric SCVs. This segment typically includes pickup trucks, mini trucks, and small container vehicles, with payload capacities generally ranging from 500 to 1,200 kg.

SCV units are sold almost double as compared to medium and heavy commercial vehicles, filling the gap between rural producers, urban markets, and consumer-end delivery.

The increasing shift toward CNG and electric SCVs, which offer 25–40% lower running costs compared to diesel vehicles, promises an optimistic future growth ahead.

Medium Commercial Vehicles (MCV)

Medium Commercial Vehicles (MCVs) are usually used for FMCG distribution, building materials, manufacturing goods, and hub-to-spoke operations. This category typically includes trucks in the 7.5–16 tonne GVW range.

In FY 2025, MCV retail sales increased to 77,568 units, marking a 6.05% YoY growth from FY 2024.

Monthly retail sales also witnessed strong momentum, and similar upward trends were seen throughout the year, with MCVs registering a 19.78% YoY increase in October 2025.

Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCV)

Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCVs) constitute the largest and most capital-intensive segment of India’s CV industry. With a GVW typically above 16 tonnes, HCVs are designed for high payload capacity and long-distance operations.

Recent trends have been mixed:

In October 2025, HCV retail sales were 27,685 units, a 76% decline YoY.
In August 2025, sales increased from 21,159 to 22,412, a 92% rise YoY.

From a production standpoint, combined M&HCV production was largely flat:

FY 2024-25: 393,619 units
FY 2023-24: 393,463 units

Market Growth Driving Factors in the CV Industry

Over the last 3 years, the market growth in the commercial vehicle industry has been stagnant, so what are the factors that promise a 7.46% CAGR?

Economic Growth:

India’s economic growth is projected to increase by 6.7% annually. A substantial portion of this growth will be channelled into rural infrastructure development—creating an untapped market for CVs.

E-commerce Expansion:

India’s rapidly expanding e-commerce market is reshaping commercial vehicle demand.

As online retail penetrates Tier 2, Tier 3 cities, and rural areas, the need for last-mile logistics is surging, boosting demand for Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs).

Government Support:

The Indian government is actively shaping the CV sector via regulatory and financial measures.

Policies like the Vehicle Scrappage Policy and PM E-DRIVE incentivise fleet owners to replace old vehicles with cleaner, new-generation CVs.

Increasing Export Demand:

India’s ambition to become a global manufacturing hub is increasing the requirement for HCVs. Rising export demand for high-horsepower, multi-axle vehicles for port logistics and container movement.

How the Market Leaders Are Shaping the Trucking Industry

The top 5 truck manufacturers hold approx 91% of the market share. They are the key drivers of change.

Tata Motors — 32% Market Share

Tata Truck’s Deep market penetration
Strong SCV portfolio
Strategic demerger to focus entirely on the CV segment

Mahindra & Mahindra — 28% Market Share

Strong presence in rural/semi-urban logistics
Expanding <3.5T LCV lineup along with iconic vehicles like Mahindra ZEO
Ambitious EV roadmap with a target of 1 million EVs by 2031

Ashok Leyland — 18% Market Share

Strong in the HCV category
Aggressive EV expansion via Switch Mobility
Focus on modular platforms

VE Commercial Vehicles (Volvo–Eicher) — ~8% Market Share

Emphasis on modern, fuel-efficient solutions
Leveraging Volvo’s global engineering
Expanding into SCV and EV categories

BharatBenz (Daimler India) — 3.2% Market Share

High impact in the HCV segment
New leadership under Torsten Schmidt from 2026
Strong strategy aligning with global standards

Conclusion

Despite stagnation in total CV unit sales over the past three years, the TruckOnWheels research team projects a strong growth trajectory for India’s CV market. These projections stem from a holistic analysis of industry trends, performance metrics, and forward-looking indicators.

Disclaimer: The figures and projections in this article are based on TruckOnWheels research and publicly available data. Market conditions may change, and this content should not be considered financial or business advice. Readers should verify information independently before making decisions.