Petrol, Diesel May Drop Below Rs.20: JPMorgan Predicts Crude at Record Low

India –  Will petrol and diesel become cheaper than Rs 20? JPMorgan claims that the price of 1 liter may reach Rs 18.

This estimate by JPMorgan is very important for countries that are highly dependent on crude oil imports, like India, which imports about 86 percent of its crude oil requirement from other countries.

We often hear or see news that petrol and diesel prices may fall in the coming days. But have you ever heard that crude oil prices will become cheaper than a bottle of water? It is being said that in the near future, the price of crude oil in the international market may fall below the price of a bottle of drinking water. This is not an exaggeration. But this is an estimate made by global brokerage firm JPMorgan. According to JPMorgan, the price of Brent crude may fall to $ 30 per barrel by March 2027.

Petrol-diesel to be cheaper by Rs 18

If this price is converted into Indian rupees at an exchange rate of around Rs 95 per dollar, the price of a barrel will be around Rs 2850. There are 159 litres of crude in a barrel. Accordingly, the price of a litre of crude oil will be just Rs 17.90, which is less than the price of a bottle of mineral water that is usually sold in Delhi for Rs 18 to 20 per litre.

This estimate by JPMorgan is very important for countries that are heavily dependent on crude oil imports, like India. India imports about 86 per cent of its crude oil requirement from other countries. JPMorgan estimates that Brent crude prices could fall by more than 50% from their current level, which is above $62 per barrel. This decline is expected as supply is expected to outpace demand at the global level

Oversupply impact to be seen

Although global oil consumption is expected to increase over the next three years, supply growth will be much higher than demand, particularly in non-OPEC+ countries (Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Malaysia, Sudan and South Sudan, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei and Singapore). If supply increases, this will have a clear impact on prices.

Global oil demand is expected to increase by 0.9 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2025, bringing total consumption to 105.5 mbpd. Growth is expected to remain stable in 2026 and to 1.2 mbpd in 2027. However, JPMorgan estimates that supply will grow about three times faster than demand in 2025 and 2026. By 2027, supply will exceed consumption, leading to oversupply and a decline in prices.