$1 Trillion US Holiday Season Holds the Key for Surat Diamond Traders’ 2026 Outlook

Surat | Gujarat — The entrepreneurs in the world’s largest Surat diamond industry are pinning all their hopes on the 2025 holiday season in the United States (US). According to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions,  holiday sales are set to rise at 3.7% to 4.2%, taking seasonal spending beyond $1 trillion for the first time.

US retail sales recorded solid year-on-year growth in November, pointing to a steady start to the 2025 holiday season, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions. Total retail sales excluding autos and fuel rose 4.53% year on year, while core sales grew 4.66%. Month-on-month growth was largely flat, partly due to a late Thanksgiving pushing promotions into December.

NRF said the data supports its forecast of holiday sales rising 3.7% to 4.2%, taking seasonal spending beyond $1 trillion for the first time.

Momentum is expected to build on Super Saturday, with 158.9 million consumers planning to shop on the final Saturday before Christmas, a new record. Nearly half plan to shop both online and in-store, with clothing, toys and gift cards leading purchases. Experience-based gifts continue to gain ground, while 70% of consumers expect to shop again after Christmas to use gift cards and capture post-holiday deals.

“US is the largest consumer of polished diamonds and the success of the 2025 holiday season will chart the way on how business is going to be in 2026” said diamond analyst Aniruddha Lidbide. “This time, the diamond entrepreneurs in Surat and Mumbai exported the majority of their polished diamonds in the start of August and September, anticipating heavy US tariffs. However, the November sales has reflected about 43% increase in the polished diamond export”

According to Lidbide, the real picture of the US demand will emerge sometime in February and March 2026. If the 2025 holiday season is far better than the previous year, then there are reasons for the diamantaires in Surat to cheer for a good business year 2026.