Surat Diamonds Eye Recovery, But Geopolitical Clouds Gather

Surat, Gujarat — A fragile optimism is tentatively blooming in Surat, the engine room of Gujarat’s diamond industry, after two years mired in a punishing recession. Just as the world’s largest diamond exhibition, The JCK Show in Las Vegas, signals a long-awaited revival, a ominous shadow stretches across the global stage: escalating US aggression against Iran and the chilling specter of World War III. While industry leaders express fervent hope for a Diwali recovery, the volatile geopolitical climate threatens to shatter this nascent stability, potentially plunging the sector back into an unprecedented crisis.

For the past two years, Surat’s diamond industry, intricately linked to international demand, has endured immense hardship. With 8 to 9 out of every 10 diamonds consumed globally polished here, the industry’s fate hinges on consumer spending in key markets like China and America. The recent recession triggered heartbreaking instances of suicides among gemologists, painting a grim picture of an industry desperately awaiting stability and boom.

The recent JCK Exhibition, held from June 6 to 9 in Las Vegas, served as a crucial barometer, drawing traders and buyers worldwide. Its “unprecedented response” has ignited a beacon of hope among Surat’s diamond industrialists. “The JCK Diamond Exhibition will prove to be a lifeline for this industry,” affirmed Babu Vaghani, President of the Surat Lab Grown Diamond Association. He highlighted the exhibition’s success, particularly for lab-grown diamonds, which received “such a large amount of promotion” as never before. Vaghani’s optimism is palpable: “All the experts associated with the diamond industry in the world believe that the diamond industry will gain momentum in the coming days and this will be of great help to the diamond industry of Surat financially. By Diwali, the industry will be back on track and the impact of the recession will almost be over.”

Jayanti Savaliya, regional chairman of the Gem and Jewellery Promotion Council, echoed this sentiment, stating that the JCK show was “very important for the diamond industry.” While precise business figures remain elusive, the positive atmosphere signals a clear shift. “Looking at the atmosphere created by traders, buyers and visitors, our experience says that the current recession in real diamonds and lab-grown diamonds will go away,” he remarked.

Savaliya also pointed to a significant evolution: “Surat Diamond is known for polished diamonds, but now it is slowly becoming a jewellery hub as well. Therefore, even if jewellery orders are received, it will be a very good thing for the diamond industry.” He believes the next two to three months will be crucial for both rough and lab-grown diamonds, noting that despite tariff concerns, diamond and jewellery purchases haven’t significantly declined, hinting at a major relief from the past two years’ struggles.

Yet, this hard-won optimism hangs by a thread. The diamond industry, fundamentally a luxury market, is acutely sensitive to global economic confidence and stability. The burgeoning tensions between the United States and Iran, coupled with the chilling whispers of a potential wider global conflict, introduce a colossal variable. Such a geopolitical earthquake could not only disrupt critical shipping routes and supply chains—vital for both rough diamond imports and polished diamond exports—but also trigger a collapse in consumer confidence in key markets. A global conflict would inevitably divert resources, stifle discretionary spending, and impose new sanctions or trade barriers, potentially suffocating the very recovery Surat is now celebrating.